Longevity isn’t for sissies
Every year we get a greater understanding of what shortens or prolongs life. Medical research finds ways of extending life and life expectancy increases – to universal celebration. This increase in life expectancy has to be funded in the retirement years. In countries that have decent government sponsored pensions this is causing a severe problem, exacerbated by the slowing birth rate. In effect in those countries they are using pension contributions from the young to pay the old, because estimates made decades ago as to how long people would live were way out. This is all going to implode one day.
In South Africa, where most working South Africans will have to make their own provisions for retirement, and cannot rely on the government safety net, this problem is right on our doorstep. The retirement models that many financial planners use, still assume that we will live maximum 20 years past retirement age of 65. In other words 85. These models assume total capital consumption because preserving capital makes the required savings ratios out of reach for most struggling families.
Unfortunately it is much more realistic to assume that you will live 30 years past retirement. There is another growing trend that is going to impact this even more. Families are postponing having children into their thirties, and even their forties. This means they will have dependants will into the traditional ‘accumulation’ years, perhaps right to the edge of retirement. It’s an uncomfortable fact that children put a significant dent in your consumption and makes it very difficult to top up retirement savings. If couples that delay starting family are doing that high accumulation and retirement saving before children, then there wouldn’t be an issue, unfortunately most couples are consuming much of that income on travel, leisure and lifestyle assets. It is going to take 20 years for that problem to become really apparent, but if you fall into that demographic I recommend you sit down with your financial advisor and plan out a happier outcome. The good news is that the proportion of your income you need to put away is going to be fraction of what it would be in your fifties.
Wealth is what is left after you have consumed your income. So it is simple, if you want to increase your wealth, increase your income or decrease your consumption.